Trade and Value Chains · Market Brief
The New African Trade Map
How Global Trade Fragmentation Is Reshaping Africa's Winning Export Corridors
September 2026 · 11 min read · Pro tier
15–18%
intra-African share of total trade (vs Asia 59%)
Research question
Which African countries, trade corridors and value chains are best positioned to benefit from the restructuring of global supply chains?
Key findings
- Lobito (US/EU, $6bn+) and TAZARA (China-financed) race to move the same DRC–Zambia copper and cobalt to opposite oceans.
- 13 countries imposed critical-mineral export or beneficiation rules since 2022 — but processing capacity lags (Zimbabwe: one lithium plant despite a total ban).
- AfCFTA is claimable in fewer than half its members: about 25 of 54 had gazetted tariff schedules by March 2026.
Pro subscribers only
Unlock the full Market Brief
The full brief adds country comparisons, data tables, the companies and institutions to watch, forward scenarios, and the complete sourced evidence base behind the findings above.